NFL strength of schedule 2021: Using win totals for sorting the easiest and most difficult matchups

The 2022 NFL Schedule will be released Thursday, May 12th on the NFL Network, but we already know the matchups and sportbooks have already set win total numbers. And now we can take those numbers and figure out which teams have the easiest to toughest schedules. It isn’t perfect of course, but taking the opinion of the line setters is usually closer to reality than looking at the win percentages from previous seasons. Win percentages don’t take into account any offseason moves or schedule, whereas adding up the over / unders for each opponent does both.

This season, it looks like the Washington Commanders get the easiest schedule in the league. This is very good news for them, as last season they had one of the tougher schedules and had a dismal record against playoff teams.

The Kansas City Chiefs on the other hand, have the toughest schedule, which makes sense due to the AFC West going all in this offseason. They had a tough schedule last season as well, but they landed with the toughest this year. We’ll see how the absence of Tyreek Hill and the addition of Russell Wilson in Denver, Davante Adams in Las Vegas and some big defensive additions in Los Angeles play out.

Of course, there are plenty of teams in-between the two best and worst schedules and teams will out- or under-perform their win totals, but this method has shown to be the most accurate in judging strength of schedule in the NFL.


TEAM WIn Total Rk
TEAM WIn Total Rk
Washington Commanders 1
Chicago Bears 2
Philadelphia Eagles 3
Indianapolis Colts 4
Seattle Seahawks 5
Dallas Cowboys 6
Jacksonville Jaguars 7
New York Giants 8
Cleveland Browns 9
Minnesota Vikings 10
Miami Dolphins 11
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12
Green Bay Packers 13
Baltimore Ravens 14
New Orleans Saints 15
Detroit Lions 16
Carolina Panthers 17
Denver Broncos 18
Tennessee Titans 19
Buffalo Bills 20
Atlanta Falcons 21
Los Angeles Chargers 22
Houston Texans 23
New England Patriots 24
Arizona Cardinals 25
Cincinnati Bengals 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Las Vegas Raiders 28
San Francisco 49ers 29
Los Angeles Rams 30
New York Jets 31
Kansas City Chiefs 32

Win total SOS provided by Sharp Football

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